Risk heat · highest residual first
What could go wrong
Pre-mortem for: Announce the 80th-anniversary partnership publicly next week
Ranked by likelihood × impact
| # | Failure mode | L | I | L×I | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Funding tranche is pulled at the last minute | 4 | 4 | 16 | Critical |
| 2 | Message gets misquoted in the press | 4 | 3 | 12 | Elevated |
| 3 | Partner backs out after the announcement | 2 | 5 | 10 | Elevated |
| 4 | Internal team not aligned on talking points | 3 | 2 | 6 | Watch |
| 5 | Regulatory filing deadline collides with launch day | 1 | 5 | 5 | Watch |
Go / no-go
PROCEED WITH CAUTION1 critical risk to own
Top residual risks — caveats, not a green light
- Funding tranche is pulled at the last minute (L×I 16) — adversary move: An opponent leaks budget uncertainty to spook the donor right before the wire clears.. Watch: Donor has not confirmed the wire date in writing..
- Message gets misquoted in the press (L×I 12) — adversary move: A hostile outlet reframes one line out of context to manufacture a controversy.. Watch: No approved statement and Q&A doc circulated to spokespeople..
- Partner backs out after the announcement (L×I 10) — adversary move: A rival courts the partner during our public-commitment window, when we cannot walk it back cleanly.. Watch: No signed MOU on file 48 hours before the announcement..
This summary never returns a false green light. Even a “PROCEED” carries its top residual risks forward as caveats you own.